Future autonomous drones and anti drone systems

(Source: Yuanting Defense's Future Autonomous Drones and Anti Drone Systems)

Summary: In September 2022, the Indian Army released the Policy Guidelines for Counter Drone Operations and Capability Development, which stated that the Indian Army needs to conduct anti drone operations, develop anti drone systems, and deploy such systems in field environments. Although contemporary anti drone systems aim to conduct anti drone operations based on existing deployment experience, recent developments in drones also need to be considered from the outset of anti drone system development. This article analyzes the development of autonomous drones in the Russia Ukraine conflict and the threats they pose, and predicts the future development of anti drone systems. This article also compares the anti drone hard kill and soft kill solutions from a combat perspective, with a focus on improving India's anti drone system development work to avoid possible one size fits all solutions.

Keywords: anti drone system, hard kill, soft kill, autonomous drone, artificial intelligence

Combat Background - Autonomous Drones

The Russo Ukrainian War was the first comprehensive war to use drones on a large scale, and both the Russian and Ukrainian armies deployed a large number of drones. The Russian military has used the "Lancet" and "KUB" cruise missiles, both of which have a certain degree of autonomy. The Ukrainian military used the American made "Switchblade" cruise missile, which can use algorithms to identify targets. The key to the gradual integration of autonomous capabilities or artificial intelligence technology into unmanned aerial vehicle systems is software upgrades to reduce manual control.

Due to the significant increase in the number of deployed drones, it has become very difficult to control a large number of drones for flight, obstacle avoidance, and precise strikes. As a result, autonomous drones have emerged. Experts warn that the popularity of drones is driving armies around the world to increasingly hand over control to artificial intelligence, a trend that will ultimately give rise to autonomous combat systems that do not require human intervention. This may require an autonomous protection loop, as without artificial intelligence, humans may not be able to defend against autonomous drones.

Autonomous capability in unmanned aerial vehicles

Before analyzing the autonomous capabilities in drones, it is crucial to distinguish between the definitions of "artificial intelligence" and "automation", as these two terms are often interchangeable in practical use. Although both terms involve smarter and more efficient combat, there is still a certain conceptual difference between the two terms. Both artificial intelligence and automation are related to data, with automation devices primarily used for organizing data, while artificial intelligence systems are primarily used for interpreting data.

Automation refers to the setting of equipment to comply with pre-set rules, aimed at freeing human operators from tedious and error prone repetitive work. Automation can provide support for human operators, allowing them time to complete other tasks that require critical and creative thinking.

Artificial intelligence refers to setting up devices to make autonomous decisions (through human input). Artificial intelligence aims to mimic human intelligence levels by observing and learning specific patterns and historical outcomes to enhance its abilities, and then use its abilities to complete tasks.

The autonomous operation of drones refers to the system's ability to modify its combat framework or objectives (initially determined by algorithms and designers) without human intervention.

Autonomous drone technology

Most of the intelligent functions related to drones are implemented on the ground. Drones send data streams (usually images) to the ground, where algorithms and human operators process the data. Then, human decision-makers will verify, cross reference, and analyze this information on the ground to determine opportunities for specific actions. In other words, drones transmit data to the command chain to determine whether to take combat action. After taking action, the combat command will be sent to the combat personnel. When the drone carries necessary strike weapons, the combat command will be sent back to the drone. Decision makers will authorize drone operators to strike targets. Although human operators may delegate the execution of some actions to autonomous systems, all actions of drones throughout the entire process are under human control.

Autonomous drones can use high-performance onboard image processors and drone neural networks during flight for target detection, classification, and tracking. Drones can use cameras and sensors to capture data, which will be used for analysis to extract valuable information for specific purposes. In this process, computer vision technology will be used for image processing to achieve automatic extraction, analysis, and understanding of valuable information. Drones can also use deep machine learning technology to achieve autonomous navigation, target detection, target tracking, obstacle detection, and collision prevention. To accomplish these tasks, the artificial intelligence system of drones needs to be trained using multiple datasets and accurate labeled data.

Autonomous drones in the Russia Ukraine conflict

In the Russo Ukrainian War, the Ukrainian military is using the American made "Spring Knife" cruise missile, which is small in size and capable of carrying high explosive warheads. It can hover over enemy forces, identify targets through algorithms, and dive towards them after locking onto them to strike them. At the same time, the Russian military is also conducting experiments on autonomous weapon systems. The manufacturers of the "Lancet" and "Cube" cruise missiles claim that both have autonomous capabilities.

With the increasing number of drones equipped with artificial intelligence systems, cruise missiles have become the best weapon for achieving high cost-effectiveness on the battlefield. Israel has been exporting its developed "Harpy" drone, which can hover over the deployment point of air defense radar for up to 9 hours. Once the radar is turned on, it can immediately lock onto the radar position and launch a dive attack on it. In addition, similar weapons and equipment include the Chinese developed "Blowfish-3" unmanned aerial vehicle and the Iranian developed "Shahed-136" unmanned aerial vehicle. Since its appearance in the Russia Ukraine conflict in September 2022, the "Witnesse-136" drone has performed exceptionally well and is considered a game changing equipment.

Compared to the early stages of the Russo Ukrainian War, the strike weapons used by the Russian military have gradually transitioned from high-tech cruise missiles to lower cost and technologically outdated cruise missiles. From January to March 2023, as the Russian military's strikes on Ukraine's power system come to an end, the number of attacks launched using the "Witness-136" drone accounted for 40% of all long-range strikes. Starting from April 2023, the deployment of the "Witness-136" drone will account for 61% of the total number of long-range strike weapons deployed by the Russian military. Compared with cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, the "Witness-136" drone has limited breakthrough capabilities and is often more easily shot down, making it highly vulnerable to attacks from German made "Cheetah" self-propelled anti-aircraft guns and other anti-aircraft gun systems. In addition, the warhead weight of the "Witnesse-136" drone is only equivalent to that of cruise missiles such as the Kh-101, so its strike power is also very limited.

The proportion of equipment used by the Russian military in kinetic strikes against Ukraine from April 1 to June 22, 2023

6 levels of autonomous flight for drones

The threat of autonomous drones

Due to its high cost-effectiveness, long flight time, ability to perform multiple tasks, and no risk of personnel injury, drones are more suitable for occupying important airspace than manned aircraft. In the future, manned aircraft will mainly be used to control drone swarms or to improve the efficiency of autonomous drones in high survival mission scenarios.

The significant enhancement of autonomous capabilities of drones has made them an important weapon in modern warfare. It is gradually filling the task gap of rockets, missiles, and aircraft, which are unable to perform certain tasks due to cost-effectiveness, personnel casualties, and denial. In these scenarios, drones with autonomous capabilities and equipped with artificial intelligence can provide different deployment options based on their capabilities and mission adaptability.

Tactical Operations Area (TBA): In the tactical operations area, equipped with mobile strike units and stationary hold down units that support the ecosystem, they may become targets for drone strikes. According to the different stages of action and tactical objectives, the priority order of these goals varies. Therefore, the selection of targets is based on the specific strike effect required to strike the target. To meet this characteristic requirement, autonomous drones are more suitable for destroying designated targets under human control before the military launches an attack. Artificial intelligence drones may also be used in tactical combat areas, but their usage is very limited. It is mainly used to perform tasks that autonomous drones cannot perform under interference, which may include GPS signal interference and communication interference.

Deep area: Artificial intelligence drones are more suitable for striking deep targets, which often have high strategic value and are in a stationary state. Remote flight requires autonomous navigation, obstacle detection, and collision avoidance. Artificial intelligence is more suitable for completing such tasks and will not be affected by enemy interference, ensuring precise strikes on targets.

Swarm threat: Swarm threat will saturate current anti drone measures and cause significant losses to traditional defense systems. When other manned or unmanned systems are unable to suppress or destroy the enemy's air defense system, the swarm can complete the task of suppressing or destroying the enemy's air defense system at different stages of the war.

Anti autonomous drone solution

In the early stages of the Russo Ukrainian War, the cost of hard or kinetic strike methods against drones was relatively high. Therefore, as the war progressed, non kinetic or soft kill anti drone methods gradually demonstrated their advantages. However, after recognizing the significant role of soft kill methods in anti drone operations, the new generation of drones will have more autonomous capabilities in future warfare to reduce reliance on communication and GPS navigation. During the Russo Ukrainian War, the following trends emerged.

The anti-interference ability of drones continues to increase: the drones used in the Russia Ukraine war have increasingly strong anti-interference capabilities. For example, technicians have upgraded the navigation system of the "Witness-136" drone, adding an antenna on the outside of the body that can receive LORAN navigation signals. Although the accuracy of LORAN navigation is not as high as GPS, it mainly relies on land-based transmitters and has strong anti-interference capabilities.

Drones have stronger autonomous capabilities: In the early stages of the Russia Ukraine war, due to their reliance on satellites for navigation, drones were highly susceptible to interference. Therefore, unmanned aerial vehicles with autonomous capabilities began to be used in the Russia Ukraine war, which reduced their dependence on navigation and communication links and enhanced their ability to resist electronic interference, making them more difficult to interfere with and shoot down. The development of unmanned aerial vehicles towards autonomy is a direct attempt to avoid electronic warfare threats, which also forces anti drone operations to rely more on hard killing methods or kinetic energy solutions.

The cost-effectiveness goal of drones: Western countries have provided Ukraine with old-fashioned radar guided anti-aircraft guns such as the German made "Cheetah" self-propelled anti-aircraft gun to provide more effective anti drone capabilities. Meanwhile, Western countries have also provided Ukraine with "Stinger" portable air defense missiles to optimize the cost-effectiveness of anti drone operations. This also reduces the interference of electronic warfare on our own drones.

Directed energy weapons: Many countries have accelerated research on laser weapons and high-energy microwave weapons. India is also testing its KALI and DURGA systems to counter drone threats.

Anti drone system

Hard killing methods play a significant role in tactical combat areas: the development of drones in the Russia Ukraine war has promoted the innovation of anti drone concepts. In the future, drones will have stronger anti-interference capabilities and reduce their dependence on communication and navigation signals. As a result, the soft kill effect on drones may be significantly reduced.

Anti drone artillery is a cost-effective solution: using surface to air missile systems for anti drone operations is less cost-effective, which makes the integration of anti-aircraft guns with advanced radar more advantageous. Advanced radar can detect targets with low radar cross section and guide anti-aircraft guns to strike.

The development of advanced ammunition: The Russia Ukraine war has made military forces realize the need for low-cost ammunition in anti drone operations. This may drive the development of low-cost ammunition or missiles in the future to counter drone threats, including 3P ammunition and micro missiles.

Lack of air based anti drone solutions: After the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, most anti drone solutions were land-based soft or hard kill systems. However, there has yet to be an air based anti drone system. On March 14, 2023, a Russian Su-27 fighter jet shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. Besides, no other air based systems have been used for anti drone operations.

Quantitative comparison between soft kill systems and hard kill systems

The hard kill anti drone system includes anti-aircraft gun system and ground to air missile system. The advantages and disadvantages of these systems are as follows:

1. Advantages

Cost effectiveness: Hard kill systems, especially anti-aircraft gun systems, use relatively inexpensive ammunition and are cost-effective.

The surface to air missile system does not have cost-effectiveness, however, the development of micro missiles has effectively optimized the cost-effectiveness of anti drone operations for the surface to air missile system. In addition, surface to air missile systems are cost-effective in striking cutting-edge drones.

Multiple options for strike ammunition: Ammunition with fragmented warheads has a higher probability of definite kill (SSKP). The addition of proximity fuses further enhances the anti drone effect of these ammunition.

2. Disadvantages

Operational accuracy: Hard kill systems rely on the firepower line of sight and/or radar tracking capabilities. The tracking capability of radar also depends on the size, range, flight altitude, and other characteristics of the target. Therefore, such systems may experience a decrease in operational accuracy in urban areas (BUA) or when the above requirements are not met.

Accessory damage: The hard kill system is suitable for combat in residential areas or tactical combat areas with low equipment density. However, in urban areas, the combat effectiveness of such systems may be relatively low due to the potential for collateral damage.

The advantages and disadvantages of soft kill are as follows:

1. Advantages

Soft kill systems are more cost-effective than surface to air missile systems: Due to their reliance on radio interference, soft kill systems are more cost-effective than surface to air missile systems.

Comparison between the unit price of the "Witnesse-136" drone and some anti-aircraft missiles

Can be deployed in urban areas: Hard kill systems can cause damage, while soft kill systems mainly engage in anti drone operations through interference methods. Therefore, these soft kill systems are more suitable for urban warfare and cause minimal collateral damage.

2. Disadvantages

Electronic interference may affect our own drones: soft kill systems can generate powerful electromagnetic waves to interfere with drones. However, these electromagnetic interferences can also have an impact on our own equipment. As the interference range of these systems grows exponentially, they are able to turn large areas of airspace into no fly zones, thus increasing the probability of causing accidental harm to our own side.

Soft kill systems are vulnerable to attacks: Most soft kill systems are vehicle mounted or portable systems. These systems detect, locate, analyze, record, and subsequently interfere with targets through energy transmission. The electronic transmission of these systems makes them highly vulnerable to attacks from anti radar missiles and cruise missiles.

The enhancement of the anti electronic interference capability of drones: These soft kill systems mainly interfere with drones by interfering with their satellite signals and communication links, and even gain control of drones. However, with the increasing autonomy of drones and artificial intelligence systems, in the future, drones will almost no longer rely on satellite links and communication links, so soft kill systems may only be used to interfere with low-end drones.

The future of anti drone systems

Hard kill system: Hard kill system will gradually become the main anti drone means in tactical combat areas, where the impact and collateral damage of electronic interference on the friendly side are very limited. However, these systems rely on radar systems for beyond visual range operations, making them highly susceptible to attacks from anti radar missiles and cruise missiles. Therefore, deploying these systems in combination with short-range soft kill systems can provide comprehensive protection for friendly units in tactical combat areas. In addition, due to the possibility of collateral damage caused by hard kill systems in urban areas, they are not suitable for deployment in cities.

Soft kill systems: As the interference range of these systems expands, they can turn large areas of airspace into no fly zones. Our aircraft entering this airspace may be subject to electronic interference. These systems are suitable for deployment in urban areas and hinterlands.

Analysis of anti drone scenarios in India

The development of local anti drone systems: India's anti drone system development mainly focuses on developing the ability to detect commercial drones at a distance of 3 to 5 kilometers from the target. India's soft kill system development is insufficient, and it mainly relies on soft kill weapons with limited interference range such as microwave electron guns for soft kill anti drone operations.

Mainly relying on hard kill systems for anti drone operations: In the Russia Ukraine conflict, anti-aircraft gun systems are both cost-effective and effective in responding to drone threats. Therefore, India needs to promote research and development in this field.

Focusing on the research and development of ammunition: The development of ammunition will improve the lethality and accuracy of anti drone operations. Therefore, India needs to promote local research and development of new ammunition to make it a cost-effective solution.

conclusion

In future wars, it is difficult to accurately distinguish between drone attacks launched by countries and those launched by terrorists, as countries intend to conduct gray zone operations to achieve reasonable deterrence. Non state organizations will compensate for the shortage of combat drones by combining military hardware with commercial drones. This trend will make the drone threats faced by countries increasingly complex, ambiguous, and unstable.

The anti drone solution requires the joint deployment of multiple parallel systems to compensate for the shortcomings of a single system and better respond to drone threats. At the same time, researchers need to ensure interoperability between various anti drone systems and modularization of different parts of the same system to achieve rapid iterative upgrades and keep up with the constantly evolving parts of drones. Shortening the technology research and development cycle is crucial for keeping up with the technological development of unmanned aerial vehicle systems.